In another piece examining why the polls got it wrong in the presidential election, Josh Pasek and Fred Conrad look at assumptions, parameters, and other factors in polling models. Conrad says: “There are so many choices in building these models that it is an art in a lot of ways. It all becomes mathematical because… Continue reading ISR’s Pasek and Conrad discuss the art and science of predicting election outcomes
Project: CPS
ISR’s Traugott and others speculate on why election projections may have gone awry
Hidden/sheepish voters, unexpected voters, flawed polling methods, too few polls, underestimates of partisan turnouts, unanticipated impact of late-breaking news – what were the reasons that, of the 61 national polls tracking a two-party presidential race, only 6 projected the Republican would win? Mike Traugott says a post-election study should assess this issue: “To the extent… Continue reading ISR’s Traugott and others speculate on why election projections may have gone awry
Science: Public interest high, literacy stable
ANN ARBOR—While public interest in science continues to grow, the level of U.S. scientific literacy remains largely unchanged, according to a survey by the University of Michigan Institute for Social Research. Funded by NASA, the study found that 51 percent of Americans are interested in science, but only 28 percent have a sufficient level of… Continue reading Science: Public interest high, literacy stable
Researchers Receive $4.9 Million to Examine Common Core
ANN ARBOR—The Spencer Foundation and the William T. Grant Foundation have awarded a team of researchers from the University of Michigan, Brown University and Stanford University nearly $5 million for the first phase of a five-year analysis of the Common Core State Standards Initiative, a controversial initiative to overhaul academic achievement standards for K-12 students… Continue reading Researchers Receive $4.9 Million to Examine Common Core
Yuri Zhukov receives Bruce Russett Award
Yuri Zhukov received the Bruce Russett Award for best paper published in the Journal of Conflict Resolution during 2015, for his paper “Population Resettlement in War. Congratulations Yuri!
Greg Tewksbury named Assistant Director of ISR
Greg Tewksbury, the former vice chancellor for business and finance for the University of Michigan-Flint, has been named Assistant Director of the Institute for Social Research (ISR). “I am delighted to welcome Greg into this important position,” said David Lam, ISR Director. “ISR will benefit enormously from Greg’s three decades of administrative and financial experience… Continue reading Greg Tewksbury named Assistant Director of ISR
U-M politcal scientists find ethnocentrism more powerful than economic concerns in opposition to immigration
This story looks at how the rising opposition to immigration across the Western world is influencing politics – in particular the growth of far right parties and candidates. Citing work by ISR-UM social scientists Nicholas Valentino and Ted Brader, and Ashley Jardina of Duke, the author suggests that the impetus behind this wave of anti-immigration… Continue reading U-M politcal scientists find ethnocentrism more powerful than economic concerns in opposition to immigration
U-M political science experts: no voter fraud in Austrian election
A team of researchers at the University of Michigan’s Center Political Studies (CPS) says their Elections Forensics Toolkit shows no signs of voter fraud in the Austrian 2016 presidential election. The Constitutional Court of Austria issued an order today to rerun the election after the right-wing populist Freedom Party filed a legal challenge alleging “failures… Continue reading U-M political science experts: no voter fraud in Austrian election
Robert Mickey wins APSA J. David Greenstone Prize
Robert Mickey won APSA’s J. David Greenstone Prize for the Best Book Published in the Past 2 Years in Politics and History: “Paths Out of Dixie.” Congratulations Rob!
Arun Agrawal named Samuel Trask Dana Professor
Special congratulations to Arun Agrawal who was named Samuel Trask Dana Professor in the School of Natural Resources and Environment. This is a well-deserved recognition for Arun.